9. The per-pupil squeeze: enrollment falls but the school doesn't shrink
Michigan funds school operations on a per-pupil basis. The state-set foundation allowance — roughly $10,836 per pupil in FY262 — is multiplied by enrollment to produce the bulk of TSD's revenue. Lose a student, lose a foundation. Gain a student, gain a foundation.
Between the FY20 enrollment peak of 13,073 and FY25's 12,393, TSD lost 680 students net — roughly 5.2% of its enrollment base, and about $7.4M of annual foundation-allowance revenue.1 The students did not all leave Troy. The city's population grew +5.5% from FY15 to FY24 (83,496 → 88,051). The school-enrolled share of the population dropped from 15.0% to 14.1% — Troy is aging, and a higher share of school-age children are enrolling outside TSD (private schools, charters, school-of-choice).1
But the buildings stayed open. The teaching staff barely changed. The MPSERS rate didn't fall. Healthcare premiums kept rising. When the same cost base is divided across fewer students, per-pupil cost goes up by arithmetic. Cost per pupil rose from $10,924 in FY15 to $15,624 in FY25 — up $4,700 per student, or 43%, in ten years.1 And the FY25 audit surfaces a notable new wrinkle: revenue per pupil dropped year-over-year for the first time since the FY18-FY19 baseline period, from $15,680 (FY24) to $15,377 (FY25). For the first time in the modern data, audited rev/pupil was lower than audited cost/pupil ($247 below).1
Enrollment vs operating cost per pupil, FY15-FY25
Bars: total enrollment, left axis. Line: General Fund operating cost per pupil, right axis. The two move in opposite directions — fewer students sharing a roughly fixed cost base mean each student's slice is larger every year.
Source: TSD FY25 ACFR — Operating Indicators (Statistical Section, p. 78). FY15 anchor from prior-year FY24 ACFR. Plante Moran, FY25 audit accepted Nov 18, 2025.
Nov 11, 2025 — FY2024-25 ACFR.
Students lost net from the FY20 enrollment peak to FY25
Annual foundation-allowance revenue not coming in vs the FY20 baseline
Operating cost per pupil growth, FY15 → FY25 (+43%)
State foundation allowance per pupil vs operating cost per pupil, FY15-FY25
The state's per-pupil contribution (the orange line) grew $1,509 over ten years — and was held flat between FY24 and FY25 at $10,394. TSD's operating cost per pupil (the blue line) grew $4,700 over the same span. The shaded area between is the gap that everything else has to fill — local Hold Harmless millage, county PA-18, IDEA flow-through, Medicaid reimbursement, and (in FY20-FY24) one-time federal ESSER aid.
Sources: TSD per-pupil foundation allowance pulled from the June 15, 2021 Board Meeting Budget Presentation (10-year history slide, FY11-FY22 series), the June 6, 2024 Board Workshop Budget Presentation (Foundation Allowance History slide, FY20-FY25 projections), and the Feb 2026 4-Year Forecast xlsx (FY25 audited = $10,394, held flat from FY24). FY26 amended computed from the January 13, 2026 Board Budget Planning Workshop deck ($130,788,472 amended foundation revenue ÷ 12,069.81 amended enrollment = $10,836). Operating cost per pupil from FY25 ACFR Statistical Section (p. 78).
June 6, 2024 deck ·
June 15, 2021 deck.
State foundation allowance growth per pupil, FY15 → FY25 (+17%) — flat FY24→FY25
Operating cost growth per pupil, FY15 → FY25 (+43%)
The per-pupil gap that local revenue + categoricals + ESSER had to fill, FY15 → FY25
Read by sub-period, the state's per-pupil contribution moved very slowly through the pre-Covid years. Foundation allowance grew only $310 from FY15 to FY19 — about 0.9% per year, below general inflation.4 Acceleration came later: +$1,199 from FY19 to FY24 (about 2.5%/year, partly Covid-era state aid increases). Then the state held the allowance flat in FY25 at $10,394 — the per-pupil contribution did not increase at all year-over-year — before the FY26 amended figure stepped up to $10,836.4 Even with the FY19-FY24 acceleration, foundation growth has trailed per-pupil cost growth in every period.
Why per-pupil revenue can't simply rise to match per-pupil cost
Reading Section 2's chart, both per-pupil cost and per-pupil revenue appear to grow at roughly the same rate. That picture is misleading: a meaningful share of the per-pupil revenue growth is one-time and pass-through money the board cannot redirect or repeat:
- ~$40M of ESSER (FY20-FY24) — federal one-time pandemic aid, mostly cliffed off (FY25 federal revenue settled to $8.7M, still ~$2M above the pre-pandemic baseline). See Section 6.
- ~$11.4M of MPSERS Section 147c pass-through in FY25 — state revenue routed specifically to absorb pension UAAL expense and a one-time 147c(2) contribution; revenue-neutral. See Section 7.
Strip those two layers out and the free per-pupil revenue — the dollars the board can actually direct — has lagged per-pupil cost growth materially. That gap, multiplied by enrollment, is the structural deficit.3
And local property taxes can't close it
A natural question: Troy property values grew enormously — $3.49B in FY15 to $6.19B in FY24, up 78%.1 Doesn't all that new tax base feed the schools? Under Michigan's Proposal A framework (passed by voters in 1994), school operating revenue is decoupled from the local property tax base. Three constraints lock TSD in:
- The 18-mill non-homestead is at the constitutional cap. School districts can levy 18 mills on non-homestead property (businesses, second homes, rentals). TSD is already at 18. There is no headroom.1
- The Headlee Amendment rolls back the rate as values grow. When taxable values rise faster than inflation, the operating millage rate is rolled back automatically. TSD's "Hold Harmless" mill (the supplemental mill districts can levy on homesteads above the foundation allowance) fell from 4.88 mills in FY19 to 2.78 mills in FY23 — losing roughly $8M/year of capacity to Headlee.1
- The foundation allowance is set in Lansing. The state sets a per-pupil foundation amount; local non-homestead revenue counts against the state's share. If local property tax revenue rises, the state's share falls — net to the district, nothing changes.
The practical result: TSD's operating millage and foundation allowance can only move when the state legislature acts. The board cannot vote itself more operating revenue. It can put bond questions for capital projects to voters (Troy did, and they passed) — but bond proceeds cannot be spent on operating expenses.
The compound problem in one line: revenue capacity scales with enrollment, but cost capacity barely scales at all. Lose enrollment, lose revenue; cost stays. The squeeze is mechanical, not the result of any one decision.
Sources for this section
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TSD FY25 ACFR — Statistical Section. Operating Indicators (p. 78) — enrollment by FY, operating cost per pupil, revenue per pupil, average teacher salary. Enrollment trajectory: FY16 12,731 → FY20 13,073 (peak) → FY25 12,393. Operating cost per pupil: FY16 $11,016 → FY24 $15,398 → FY25 $15,624. Revenue per pupil: FY24 $15,680 → FY25 $15,377 (first year-over-year decline since FY18-FY19). FY15 anchor data points (enrollment 12,563; cost/pupil $10,924) from the prior-year FY24 ACFR. Schedule of Taxable Property Values — total taxable value FY15 $3.49B → FY24 $6.19B (+78%). Demographic and Operating Statistics — population 83,496 (FY15) → 88,051 (FY24); enrollment-to-population ratio 15.0% → 14.1%. Hold Harmless mill detail (4.88 → 2.78) per board Headlee rollback fact-sheet.
Nov 11, 2025 — FY2024-25 ACFR · Nov 19, 2024 — FY2023-24 ACFR (for FY15 data point).
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FY26 General Fund 4-Year Projection (Feb 2026) carries an FY26 foundation allowance of approximately $10,836 per pupil (amended). Multiplying the 680-student FY20→FY25 enrollment decline by ~$10,836 yields roughly $7.4M of annualized foundation-allowance revenue not coming in vs the FY20 peak — recognizing that the exact per-year foundation amount differed from $10,836 across FY20-FY25, so this figure is illustrative within ±$1M.
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Decomposition of per-pupil revenue growth. Drawn from the FY25 ACFR Statement of Revenues, Expenditures, and Changes in Fund Balance (federal revenue line — ESSER component cliff visible in FY25's $8.65M total federal revenue, ~$2M above pre-pandemic baseline) and Schedule of Pension Contributions / Note 13 (MPSERS pass-through of $9.3M Section 147c + $2.1M one-time Section 147c(2) = $11.4M in FY25, per the MD&A). Detailed in Section 6 (ESSER) and Section 7 (MPSERS pass-through).
Nov 11, 2025 — FY2024-25 ACFR (MD&A and statistical section).
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TSD foundation allowance per pupil, FY15-FY26. Trajectory: FY15 $8,885 · FY16 $8,955 · FY17 $8,964 · FY18 $9,075 · FY19 $9,195 · FY20 $9,315 · FY21 $9,315 · FY22 $9,430 · FY23 $9,874 · FY24 $10,394 · FY25 $10,394 · FY26 amended $10,836. Pre-FY22 figures from the June 15, 2021 Board Meeting Budget Presentation (10-year history slide showing FY11-FY22). FY20-FY24 confirmed in the June 6, 2024 Board Workshop Budget Presentation (Foundation Allowance History slide); note that deck showed FY25 as a $10,635 projection — the audited FY25 actual was held flat at $10,394 per the February 2026 4-Year General Fund Forecast (xlsx, row 5, "24-25 Audit" column). FY26 amended computed directly from the January 13, 2026 Board Budget Planning Workshop deck (amended foundation revenue $130,788,472 ÷ amended enrollment 12,069.81 = $10,836). Both pptx chart slides extracted from embedded chart XML; FY25 actual and FY26 figure derived arithmetically from the corresponding budget-revision schedules.
June 6, 2024 budget presentation · June 15, 2021 budget presentation · Jan 13, 2026 budget planning.